Back in November I wrote a post titled Ten SWTOR Class and Population Predictions. The post contained ten educated guesses as to which SWTOR classes would be the most popular, the least popular, the most powerful, the least powerful and so on. I promised to come back to it in “a month or so” to see how accurate I was. I failed to do so. I wanted to, but I couldn’t because there wasn’t any strong census data for the game. Luckily, a week ago, Dulfy changed that.
Dulfy over at Dulfy.net took data from an advanced class distribution graph shown at the Guild Summit and converted it into a nifty looking infographic. The site is absolutely the best place for SWTOR statistical data – among other things – as evidenced by her thorough census data. Lucky for me and this follow up post, since I wouldn’t be able to write it without that data. Thank you, Dulfy.
Note: All predictions and analysis relate to pre 1.2 classes.
Now, on to the follow up analysis:
SWTOR Class Prediction Analysis
My original predictions followed by what I consider the correct answers are listed below. Note, the information covering most/least powerful classes is subjective and opinion based upon what I’ve seen and heard in game. If anybody disagrees, feel free to address it in a comment. Also, I’ll be scoring myself on my predictions just for fun. The highest possible point total is 10 as each correct prediction is worth 1 point – innovative, I know.
Prediction 1 – Most Powerful Advanced Class: Sorcerer/Sage
Half Correct (.5 Point)– First I want to clarify the original prediction by stating that I meant most powerful advanced class for DPS and not just “most powerful advanced class” as the latter is far too broad and could have unintentionally included healing and tanking into the equation; shame on me for not realizing that when I wrote the initial prediction post. Also, I’m using “powerful” to describe all around strengths of a class. Though one class may be the best at single target burst DPS and another may have the best AoE damage, which class has above average single target, aoe, utility, CC, etc.?
Sages/Sorcs are strong in PvP with plenty of aoe damage, utility and CC. I’ve seen them finish aoe friendly warzones with 600k+ damage. Where PvE is concerned (and raiders out there correct me if I’m wrong since I don’t raid), the Commando/Merc DPS seem to have a higher ceiling. Since Commando/Merc DPS is also pretty strong in PvP, I can’t honestly say that Sages get the nod for most powerful class. I’ll call this one a tie and give myself half a point. If pushed to pick one class I’d probably lean towards Sage/Sorc because of their utility and CC, but it’s too close to call without me actually playing both classes at endgame.
Prediction 2 – Least Powerful Advanced Class: Scoundrel/Operative
Wrong (0 Points) – I’m giving myself a failing grade here because I can’t honestly pick a class that I’d consider the weakest. I’ve heard arguments that Scoundrels and Operatives are pretty weak in PvE, but I’ve also heard the opposite of that. I’ve seen plenty of capable Scoundrels/Ops in PvP and would consider them far from weak. I honestly can’t pinpoint the weakest SWTOR class. If somebody else has an opinion on it, as usual, take it to the comments.
Prediction 3 – Most Played Core Role: Sith Inquisitor
Correct (1 Point) – As per the information over at Dulfy’s blog, the Sith Inquisitor holds 19% of the field. That’s 10% for the Sorcerer and 9% for the Assassin, which coincidentally are the two most played advanced classes. The next best core role is the Sith Warrior coming in at 16%. To toot my own horn, I was spot on with this pick.
Prediction 4 – Least Played Core Role: Smuggler
Correct (1 Point) – Again, I was spot on with this prediction. The Smuggler comes in at the lowest played core role comprising 7.5% of the field. That’s 4.5% for the Gunslinger and a paltry 3% for the Scoundrel. See the initial prediction post for why this core class didn’t garner mass appeal.
Prediction 5 – Most Played Advanced Class: Sith Marauder
Wrong (0 Points) – The Marauder makes up 8.5% of the field, which is 4th behind the Sorcerer (10%), the Assassin (9%), and the Mercenary (9%). I’m not surprised by the Sorc and Sin beating out the Marauder, but the Merc slipping in there wasn’t expected. I thought they’d be a solid class with player appeal, but not more appeal than a dual wielding saber specialist. Side note: In my prediction I said that I believed the Sentinel would have had nearly the same amount of people playing it and I was somewhat correct as the Sentinel is the next popular class after the Marauder, but it only comprises 7.5% of the field as opposed to the Marauders 8.5%.
Prediction 6 – Least Played Advanced Class: Scoundrel
Correct (1 Points) – I was spot on again with this class. It’s just not sexy. 3% of the player base disagrees, but they’re the only 3% playing the class; a game low – though followed closely by the Vanguard which also has 3%, but a slightly higher 3%.
Prediction 7 – Most Played Faction: Sith Empire
Correct (1 Points) – This point was a gimme. Who honestly thought Republic was going to outnumber the Sith? The percentage of Sith to Republic is 56.2% to 41% with 2.8% unaccounted for. Those numbers are worse than my prediction of 54% to 46%, but they aren’t far off, so I’m tooting the ole horn again and calling this one another spot on prediction.
Prediction 8 – Best Pure DPS Class: Commando/Mercenary
Correct (1 Point) – As with prediction 1, this prediction is related to DPS, but this is more about raw, sustained DPS and less about utility, CC and other mechanics. Second only to Sage in AoE DPS for PvP and generally considered one of the best DPS for PvE, I have to stick with my initial prediction and say that the Commando and Mercenary are the best pure DPS classes. It helps that they’re easy to play and rarely fall to the bottom of the charts.
Prediction 9 – Best Healer: Sage/Sorcerer
Correct (1 Point) – This was a close one as the Commando and Mercenary healers are pretty good as well. Sage has more potent AoE heals and utility while Mercs/Mandos have strong single heals and more survivability. AoE rules the day in most occasions and Sage single target heals are nothing to scoff at, so they get the edge.
Prediction 10 – Best Tank: Guardian/Juggernaut
Wrong (0 Points) – All three tanks and their respective mirrors are capable. There isn’t one that could be considered “bad” compared to the others. Some players seem to like the Vanguard and Powertech tanks the best since they are easier to play and hold AoE aggro with ease compared to the Guardian. That doesn’t mean the Guardian is bad, it just means that it isn’t the best, so I was incorrect with my prediction. I’d lean towards Vanguard/Powertech being the best tank, but it’s too close to decide as they’re all viable.
Final Score – 6.5/10
Not bad, though I think I could’ve done better in categorizing the predictions. For instance, single target DPS and AoE DPS could be two separate predictions instead of just a single DPS category. I could split classes by PvE and PvP as well. No matter, I had fun and I hope you enjoyed reading my results.
I love doing prediction posts and enjoy just as much the follow up analysis. With so many new MMORPGs releasing this year (TERA, The Secret World, GW2?), I’ll have to do some for them. Did any of the population numbers surprise you? Do you think things will change after patch 1.2 releases? Let me know in a comment. As usual, thanks for reading MMOverflow!